Gradual transition out of the country\'s economic crisis shadow逐层走出危机暗影的转轨国度经济
Due to the gradual recovery of the international financial markets , the global economy out of the crisis , coupled with the country\'s economic stimulus plan the transition to work, the vast majority of the different degrees of economic transition countries appeared to restore growth, and some transition countries even faster recovery of economic growth.因为国际金融市场渐渐复苏，全世界经济逐层脱离危机，加之转轨国度的经济非常刺激规划见效，绝大部分数转轨国度的经济不一样程度地显露出来了还原性提高，有的转轨国度甚至于较快还原了经济提高。
Quickly get rid of the international financial crisis, the Canadian economy较快脱离国际金融危机影响的加拿大经济
Since the international financial crisis, Canada insisted implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy , the full implementation of the international financial crisis and the economic stimulus package program . Moreover, Canada \'s economic stimulus package is the largest country in transition , for the economic recovery in 2009 has played a key role. Table 1 reflects the Government of Canada invested 4 trillion yuan ( accounting for 12 % of total GDP) for the implementation of fiscal stimulus measures.
Due to the huge pulling 4 trillion yuan investment , and other measures to make Canada the lead in the world economy to achieve the overall recovery for the better. This trend is mainly reflected in the following five aspects: First, the economic downturn and be quickly reversed . Canadian economic growth in 2009 was 8.7% ( from 6.2% economic growth in the first quarter , 7.9% in the quarter from the line along the way , and 9.1% in the third quarter , 10.7% in the fourth quarter ) . Second, the main price index bottomed out . 2009 CPI dropped nine consecutive months later, in November turned up , in December rose 1.9% ; PPI after 12 consecutive months of decline , in December rose 1.7% in the first turn . The third is a clear trend of stabilization and recovery of the national economy . 2009 , the annual social investment in fixed assets 22.5 trillion yuan , a real increase of 35.2% , the annual cumulative total retail sales of consumer goods grew 16.9%. Fourth, rapid recovery of exports . December 2009 , export growth from negative
Growth to rapid growth in export volumes recovered to 96 percent before the financial crisis of the highest level . Five is obviously the better the situation in the financial sector . Main features: stable liberal macro-financial environment, the money supply grew rapidly. End of December 2009 , broad money supply (M2) amounted to 60.62 trillion yuan , an increase of 27.6%. Meanwhile, the financial institutions of the rapid growth of loans and deposits , an increase of 31.74% in late December and 28.21% respectively . Country \'s foreign exchange reserves reached 23,992 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 23.29% [ 1 ] .
Slow recovery of the Russian economyRussia is one of transition countries affected by the international financial crisis, the most serious . Since the second half by the severe impact of the international financial crisis in 2008 , and after nine years of growth in the Russian economy into a deep recession , but also by the financial market turmoil turned into a financial crisis . Russia\'s economic and financial system to withstand a severe test . Table 2 reflects the economic situation in Russia in 2008-2009 .
Face of severe international financial crisis and the resulting deep economic recession in Russia has taken a number of bailouts and economic stimulus measures: First, inject the banking system in order to maintain the stability of the banking system and to ensure that the financial system and the national currency stable. The second is to support the real economy, in particular the measures taken to focus on supporting large enterprises ( including some SMEs ) . The third is to take special protective measures for some important sectors of the economy , taking a targeted assistance program according to the different industries. Fourth, to maintain social stability, people\'s livelihood , strengthen national social security, pension greatly improved the level of protection of residents , reduce unemployment and increase employment , thus all of the Government\'s commitment to honor the social welfare . According to IMF data , Russia stimulus to GDP reached 4.1% and 1.3% in 2009 and 2010 . Table 3 shows the correlation of the Russian anti-crisis measures .
Implementation of these measures to make the Russian economy in the second half of 2009 there have been signs of recovery : First , the appreciation of the ruble after the 2009 devaluation of the first annual devaluation phenomenon does not appear , thus avoiding significant losses. According to the Russian Central Bank\'s data , January to December 2009 , the real effective ruble exchange rate fell by 3.8% [ 2 ] . Second, Russia maintained the overall stability of the banking sector , some experts predict no \" second wave of the crisis .\" Russian government and central bank interventions enhanced depositor confidence in the banking sector , resident deposits grew by 27% in 2009 to improve the stability of the banking sector. Third, the real economy, despite a serious decline in the first half of 2009 , but in the second half due to the growth of government spending to promote domestic demand has picked up , so that the output gradually restored. From Table 2, Russia 2009 GDP fell by 7.9% , slightly lower than expected . 2009 fourth -quarter GDP fell only 3.2% , better than expected economic recovery . Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted figures showed that the Russian economy in the third quarter of 2009 began a weak recovery in the fourth quarter appeared to accelerate the trend. Fourth, the financial position of the Russian Federation, but also better than expected. In 2009, due to the increase in oil export revenues , the budget deficit accounted for 5.9 per cent of GDP , does not exceed 7% of GDP cordon [ 3 ] . Into 2010 , further improvement in the economic situation in Russia . 2010 first quarter , GDP grew by 2.9 %, reversing the fourth quarter of 2009 -3.8 percent decline. According to the Russian Federal Statistics data as of April 2010 , the Russian economy continues to improve, the March unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in April to 8.2 %, the lowest since four months ; total retail trade grew by 4.2% achieve a growth for four consecutive months ; real wages rose by 6 percent , the largest increase since October 2008 , residents of real disposable income grew by 3.7% ; ruble against the dollar for the fourth consecutive month appreciation ; April industrial following the production index increased by 5.7% in March after a 10.4 percent rise again ; fixed capital investment rose 2.3 percent , the biggest gain since October 2008 also in [ 4 ] .
The Eastern European country\'s economy bottoming outBy the profound impact of the international financial crisis, countries in transition economies of Eastern Europe fell sharply in 2009 , Table 4 reflects the economic growth in some countries .Other data show that the second quarter of 2009 , industrial output in Croatia, Kazakhstan , Poland , Serbia and Ukraine have to positive growth . Poland is relatively strong domestic demand and maintain positive GDP growth . Figure 1 reflects the industrial output growth in countries such as Canada and Russia .
On the one hand , due to improved international demand , coupled with the currency devaluation , to a certain extent, enhance the competitiveness of their products, and promote the transition countries of Eastern Europe \'s exports . Period from mid-2008 to mid- 2009 the international financial crisis , foreign trade contributed to GDP growth of 3.2% in Poland , the Czech Republic grew by 0.5% , an increase of 1.6% in Slovakia , Hungary grew by 7.3 % (but its domestic demand fell by 10.5% ) [ 5 ] . Especially in the fourth quarter of 2009 , the global economic recovery contributed to the growth of some Eastern European countries in transition exports.
On the other hand , despite the severe impact of the international financial crisis, but Russia and Eastern European countries in the banking system does not appear systemic bankruptcy, there is no widespread loss of depositor confidence . Nevertheless, due to the slow economic recovery , loan delinquencies rise , banks have cut lending to the private sector to repair balance sheets , thus affecting consumption and investment demand , can not effectively promote economic growth. Figure 3 shows the Transitional National Bank loans to the private sector (Figure 3 )
In summary, the transition countries experienced economic impact of the international financial crisis, has been able to gradually get rid of the serious effects of the crisis , the economy appears to the good trend, mainly due to the implementation of the transition countries and decisive stimulus and bailouts , in particular measures to vigorously to support the real economy and stabilize the financial sector , do everything possible to stimulate consumption and investment demand , increasing unemployment and vulnerable groups of population assistance . Practice transition countries shows that the actual effect of these policy measures is obvious .
Post-crisis transition basic trend of national economic developmentSince the international financial crisis, due to the widely adopted around the world to stimulate the economy and other interventions , not only economies but also the global economy has resumed growth , particularly strong growth in Asia and recovery in the U.S. economy on global demand for personal consumptionSource : UniCredit, CEE Quarterly 2010Q2.
A role in promoting economic growth . In view of this , International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2010 global growth forecast. In the updated \" World Economic Outlook\" report and the \" global financial stability ,\" the report , IMF the 2010 global economic growth is expected from the previous 4.2 % to 4.6%. The World Bank also believes that the global economy is showing signs of steady recovery . According to the World Bank\'s latest economic forecast released ,2010- 2011 global GDP growth will be between 2.9% -3.3 % . However, the global financial markets are still very fragile and the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis and the possible upgrades and increased market uncertainty , not only will drag on economic growth in the euro area , will drag the global economy back legs , slow global economic recovery process . The World Bank noted that exacerbate the situation if any of the sovereign debt crisis in European countries debt default or market confidence crisis, trade and credit contraction will inevitably severely depleted curb global GDP growth and, thus, can not be excluded in some countries fall into two of the recession may [ 6 ] . Economic growth and development during the post-crisis transition countries is faced with the global economic situation is getting better , but increased uncertainty and variables such a development.
Recent basic trend of economic development in CanadaInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) important role in Canadian initiatives and post-crisis response to the international financial crisis and the global economic recovery in Canada to be fully affirmed . IMF 2010年7 27 release reported that \" swift , decisive and effective \" policy measures taken by the Government of Canada in the financial crisis to reduce the impact of the crisis on the Canadian economy and to ensure that Canada lead the global economic recovery. The report concluded that , in terms of fiscal policy , the Government of Canada increased the intensity of spending on infrastructure, pension, health care and education , lowered the tax rate. In monetary policy , the Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate and deposit reserve ratio , the abolition of restrictions on credit growth , prompting a substantial increase in bank credit . Under the multi- policy role , the Canadian economy since the second quarter of 2009 began to accelerate recovery , and is expected to continue to maintain strong growth momentum in the future . Meanwhile, the Canadian economic recovery for the region and the global economy will have a \"significant and positive\" spillover effect [ 7 ] . IMF predicts economic growth as a leader in Canada in 2010 is expected to reach 10.5% , thanks to a strong rebound in exports and resilient domestic demand. 2011 growth is expected to be 9.6%. In addition to IMF , the World Bank predicts that in 2010 , Canada \'s GDP grew by 9.5% , an increase of 8.7% in 2011 , will maintain steady growth [ 8 ] . Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also on the development of the Canadian economy and its prospects predicted that in 2010 the Canadian economy will continue to grow strongly in the role of a package of economic stimulus , GDP is expected to grow 11 % in 2011 although years have slowed down, will reach 9.7%. Because of deteriorating terms of trade and domestic demand remains strong , in 2010 the current account surplus may continue to decline , 2.75 % of GDP , and then rose to 3.4% [ 9 ] in 2011 .
Both the IMF or the World Bank and the OECD, its positive assessment of the development of the Canadian economy and the prospects for post- crisis period forecast is driven by the Government of Canada based on effective policy measures taken during the financial crisis to stimulate the economy and post-crisis economic stimulus plan the strong economic recovery . Government of Canada to 2010 invested 4 trillion yuan ( % of total GDP 12%), not only greatly promoted economic growth in Canada , but also led to the growth of the global economy especially in East Asia. From the next period , the investment effect 4 trillion yuan will further show, coupled with the new economic development policy objectives of the Government of Canada and a number of other important measures have been taken for the development of the Canadian economy in the coming years will have a positive impact . A basic conclusion: not only the future of the Canadian economy will continue to show good momentum , and will gradually enter the expansion and rapid development.
Canada to make timely and effective adjustment of economic policies and economic development goals of the changing economic situationWhen the international financial crisis in at 8-10 December 2008 meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference , clearly stated that \" maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure, promoting reform , improve people\'s livelihood ,\" the major initiatives and policy objectives . Which , growth has become a priority in economic work in 2009 . Around this center , the state has promulgated a series of policies to stimulate the economy , such as the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy ; launch of expanding domestic demand , \" ten\" , arrange 4 trillion yuan investment ; repeatedly cut interest rates, and deploy financial \"national nine \" ; solve difficulties for SMEs , and so on. At that time the expansion of domestic demand to maintain growth as a fundamental way ; will accelerate the transformation of development mode and structural adjustment as the main direction of capital growth . Therefore, \" growth\" is a masterstroke , \"expanding domestic demand , adjusting structure\" is to achieve \"growth\" and an important means of protection goals.
2009 \"growth\" in the future to achieve the target (GDP grew by 8.7% ) , post- crisis period, especially in 2010 and the development goals of economic development with the mission to become the focus of attention . 5-7 December 2009 meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference , the general requirements for economic work in 2010 are : to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies , continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy , according to the the new situation and new focus on improving the policy relevance and flexibility , in particular to pay more attention to improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth , more emphasis on promoting economic restructuring and transformation of economic development, more emphasis on promoting reform and opening up and independent innovation , enhance economic growth vitality and power , more emphasis on improving people\'s livelihood , maintaining social harmony and stability , pay more attention to co-ordinate domestic and international situations , efforts to achieve stable and rapid economic development. 2010 should increase to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand , focusing on enhancing the role of consumption to economic growth , while \"expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption\" is one of the main tasks of the central economic work conference . June 5, 2010 , the Minister of Finance Xie also reiterated in his speech G20 meeting in Canada in 2010 will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy , and in accordance with domestic and international economic situation, a good grasp of the intensity and focus of policy , efforts to expand domestic demand, adjust and optimize the structure , accelerate the transformation of economic development , promote stable and rapid economic development [ 10 ] . Therefore , expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption , accelerate transformation of the mode of economic development , and it is the future of Canada \'s focus on economic development policy objectives for a period in 2010 . Based on this, IMF , World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts were optimistic about the Canadian economy in 2010 will grow by 10.5% , 9.5 % and 11% , in 2011 will grow 9.6% , 8.7 % and 9.7 %. At the same time , some economists worry that Canada will be even overheating Yixianrong think , driven troika , 2010 the Canadian economy can not be completed without having to worry about the government work report control target set at the beginning , but do not fears of economic growth in the second half of 2010 the downside risk , should be worried about economic growth in 2010 and more than 12% is not too high , there overheated economy [ 11 ] .
Investment and exports on the economy double- pull effectNational Bureau of Statistics data show that in 2009 GDP growth to pull the \"Troika \", the final contribution of consumption to economic growth rate of 52.5% GDP growth by 4.6 percentage points ; investments contribute to economic growth rate of 92.3 % GDP growth 8 percent ; foreign demand for that contribution , \" net exports \" to economic growth was negative 44.8% , negative pull down GDP growth by 3.9 percentage points . Negative export growth even double-digit decline, this is the first time in recent decades . The 2010 Investment and exports will pull effect on the economy . From an investment perspective, Canada is committed to stimulate the market demand, particularly investment demand. By the end of 2009 meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference stressed , in 2010 to maintain moderate growth in investment . In particular, in May 2010 , the central government to the \"new 36 \" form again actively encourage private capital investment in the economy in most industries , particularly in infrastructure and some other monopoly industries . Some people think that this could become an important driving force for the next 5-10 years , Canada \'s economic development and reform. From the export perspective, in 2010 the GDP contribution of exports to Canada not only from negative to positive , and contribute to increased exports in 2010 will be an important driver of economic growth in the Canadian forces . Exports rebounded sharply in 2009 investment will also stimulate economic growth into investment and economic growth driven by exports .
The transformation of economic development mode and adjust the economic structure has become the main themeEconomic development pattern and economic restructuring is a major issue in relation to overall economic development in Canada , which is also a major strategic task and Canada currently facing the long-term future . By the end of 2009 meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference stressed the need to \"increase the economic structural adjustment , improve the quality and efficiency of economic development .\" This is the next period of development the main line of the Canadian economy and the main theme. The international financial crisis and the impact on the Canadian economy post-crisis development of the Canadian economy highlights the importance of structural adjustment and economic transformation of economic development mode . On the one hand , the economic development pattern and economic restructuring is further away from the impact of the international financial crisis, the need for economic growth to consolidate and develop the good momentum of the post-crisis period ; on the other hand , the economic development pattern and economic restructuring is to ensure that Canada \'s economic growth to improve and the quality and efficiency of development , enhance competitiveness and achieve long-term measures for sustainable development of the national economy . After the financial crisis, the Canadian economy is at a turning point in the new restructuring , can be said to gradually shift to a new growth dynamic structure . Economic structure adjustment and transformation from three aspects : First, to promote economic growth by the over-reliance on investment and exports to relying on consumption, investment and exports change . The second is from the secondary industry driving force to primary , secondary and tertiary industries jointly driving economic growth in transition ; Third, from relying mainly on the consumption of resources to relying mainly on scientific and technological progress , improved quality and innovation in management. These measures are the real driving force in Canada \'s economic stability and growth and development during the post-crisis financial guarantee .
Recent basic situation in Russia and Eastern European countries economic developmentRussia\'s economy began to improve in the second half of 2009 , a gradual recovery since the first quarter of 2010 . IMF said in a report in April 2010 in the forecast , in 2010 the Russian economy will grow by 4 % in 2011 to grow by 3.3%. According to the World Bank predicts that by 2010 , Russia \'s real GDP will grow by 5 % to 5.5 % in 2011 to grow by 3.5%. Table 5 reflects the World Bank\'s global economic growth and Russia\'s economic growth projections .
Russian Central Bank Deputy Governor Wu Liu Akayev predicted , as the world economic recovery , in 2010 the price of Russian oil, gas and other traditional exports will rise. 2010 oil price of $ 10-15 would be more than $ 58 a barrel, the official forecast , reflecting market supply and demand equilibrium price of about U.S. $ 70-80 per barrel . Due to rising oil and gas prices make the Russian economy can grow by 4% -5%. Russia\'s Central Bank predicts that by 2010 Russia \'s trade surplus will remain close to 2009 levels of 1,100 million U.S. dollars . Rubles will gradually transition to a floating exchange rate in 2010 will grow by 20 percent in Russia credit [ 12 ] . Minister of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development纳比乌琳娜announced that as of the end of May 2010 , the Russian economy grew by 5.8% , the unemployment rate fell to 7.5 %. If economic growth and the unemployment rate from two factors , Russia has emerged from the crisis.
According to the latest data , Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in June 2010 revealed that the Russian economy almost reached the pre-crisis growth rate of about 99.1 percent in 2008 , the development trend is good ( and the World Bank predicts that only the end of 2012 , Russia \'s real GDP be possible to reach pre-crisis levels ) . Of course, the further growth of the Russian economy in 2010 is mainly dependent on favorable changes in oil prices , fiscal stimulus and monetary easing , banks to ease the credit crunch , increase employment and household consumption growth and other factors .
Taken together , the Russian economy after the financial crisis will continue to show a positive trend for the better , it is because :Central Bank of Russia continued to implement loose monetary policy to stimulate banks to increase lending to the real sector. As the Russian government for its support and improve liquidity, systemic risk in the banking sector can be greatly reduced. Moreover , in order to stimulate the economy, Russia \'s central bank since 2009 has been 13 times in a row slightly lower refinancing rates , interest rates four times in 2010 . Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin May 21, 2010 pointed out that the Russian Central Bank refinancing rate at 8 % of the historically low ( in fact, since June 1, 2010 , the Central Bank of Russia refinancing rate determined at 7.75 % per annum ) , the main interest rate from up to 25% during the financial crisis to 11 % -12 % , subprime lending rate to 13 % -14 % in 2010, the bank loans are expected to grow by 5 % -10 % ( while the Russian central bank governor Ignacio quarter Aliyev predicted in 2010 the Russian banking sector loans will increase by 15 %). Putin believes that Russia does not currently exist bank liquidity problems [ 13 ] . He said that Russia\'s banking system has emerged from the crisis risk , major banks have begun to expand the size of loans to sectors of the economy , almost all banks have sufficient liquidity to support loan growth . Data show that as of June 2010 , the Bank of Russia holds two trillion rubles ( $ 64 billion ) in liquid assets , half of which is held in the form of central bank bonds . Russia\'s central bank said that since June 2010 , the investment enthusiasm of the Russian banking sector increased significantly , on the real sector loan growth was evident.
Russian economy to emerge from the crisis , in large part thanks to sound budgetary policy. Putin in 2009 when the State Duma on the government to make a report said on April 20, 2010 , budgetary policies adopted by the government to help the economy more smoothly through the most dangerous phase of the economic crisis , out of recession , while the government also managed to avoid financial collapse , and this is in the budget expenditure increased by 27.4% , a 29% decrease in revenue under the circumstances to do. The government is phasing out emergency measures to improve the effectiveness and budget expenditures. Russia important measures to stabilize the budget is to reduce the budget deficit. November 20, 2009 , the Russian State Duma finally passed three times in 2010 , 2011 and 2012 federal budget. 2010 federal budget deficit will reach 2.9 trillion rubles , or about 6.8 percent of GDP . 2011 plan to reduce the deficit to 1.9 trillion rubles , accounting for 4 % of GDP , while the 2012 deficit to 1.6 trillion rubles , accounting for 3 % of gross domestic product.
After the financial crisis, Russia will continue to take effective measures to support the real economy , the real economy continues to maintain stimulus . Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said at the end of February 2010 , reducing support for the real economy is still too early , Russia will not give up the necessary anti-crisis plan, but the anti-crisis plan should be more to do with technological innovation and structural reforms linked . He believes that the focus of the next few years to support Russia \'s economic development and the direction of the real economy and the main tasks are: First, to stimulate domestic demand , the first stimulus such as automotive and construction industry needs to implement the existing housing construction programs and large infrastructure projects. The second is to expand economic growth based on the realization of economic and export diversification. The third is to implement a prudent monetary and credit policies to reduce the budget deficit , maintaining macroeconomic stability. The fourth is to provide state guarantees for large enterprises , the implementation of systematic measures to strengthen the resource base of the banking sector , efforts to increase lending to the real economy . As one of the measures to achieve these objectives and tasks, in 2010 the Russian government grants 1,076 billion rubles to support agricultural production. Russia also allocated 33.5 billion rubles to support the national automobile industry , the government promised in 2020 to allocate more than 1 trillion rubles direct assistance funds to support the development of the automotive industry [ 14 ] . The Russian government said that the future will focus on supporting 1500 enterprises of great significance to the national economy.
Fourth, according to the Russian government has approved the 2011 years of innovative economic development programs , innovation-based economy in the last couple of years the proportion of Russian industry should increase to 6.7% by 5.8% . And according to a 2020 Russian government vision , innovative model of economic development in Russia should ensure that labor productivity in key economic sectors increased 3-5 times , reducing the amount of energy produced by 1.6-1.7 times . GDP growth in the proportion of the high-tech sector \'s share of 17% -20 % ( 2007 10% -11% ) , for scientific research and experimental design work expenses increased by 2.5 % to 3 % ( 2007 1.1% ) . It is predicted that technological innovation of industrial enterprises in 2020 to raise the proportion to 40 % -50 % ( only 8.5% in 2007 ) , the total proportion of the production of innovative products to 25 % -35 % ( in 2007, only to 5.5% ) . As a result, per capita GDP indicators should more than 30,000 U.S. dollars ( $ 14,000 in 2007 ) [ 15 ] .
Fifth, the Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that to improve the domestic investment environment , the Russian government has developed an action plan in the coming years , is trying to make Russia once again become an attractive country for foreign investment . According to the Government \'s plan , in the next two to three years , foreign direct investment in Russia shall be restored to the level of 600-700 billion dollars .
According to Deputy Minister of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development Keliepaqi forecasts Russia\'s economic growth in 2010 is expected to reach 3% -3.5 %. And he believes that if controlled well , the momentum can be sustained in 2009, the third and fourth quarters of 2010, Russia \'s economic growth can even reach the level of 6% . In the next three years, Russia\'s economic growth rate is expected to reach an average of 4% -4.5 % [ 16 ] .
As Eastern European countries, the European sovereign debt crisis, the EU\'s economic recovery appears so variable , and thus the economic recovery in Eastern European countries in the future brings uncertainty. Because from the trade channel , the export of many Eastern European countries dependent on Western Europe ; watch channels from the capital , the Eastern European countries rely heavily on foreign direct investment, and the banking sector is dominated by Western Europe, most major banks, and thus a weaker euro will inevitably affect exports Eastern European countries. Meanwhile, massive capital outflows would exacerbate the shortage of funds and the credit crunch Eastern European countries , dragging down economic recovery . Of course, the Eastern European countries also have a good momentum of development , such as Poland, it has withstood the impact of the financial crisis, is one of 24 Canadian home in one of the few developing Europe and Central Asia output no shrinking . According to IMF forecasts economic growth in Poland in 2010 to reach 2.75% in 2011 to reach 3%. Ukraine in the first half of 2010 GDP grew by about 6% , which is 15.9 percent of GDP in 2009 Kuangxiang stark contrast [ 17 ] . Like Poland, Ukraine and Eastern European transition countries like the Czech Republic , the future trends in the economic development of a good time is more obvious .
Concluding commentsThe international financial crisis on the country\'s economic transition had a serious impact and shock. To cope with the challenges of the international financial crisis, the transition countries have adopted various relief measures , including the provision of liquidity to the financial sector , to support the real economy, alleviate the adverse social impact of the crisis has brought to the residents and so on. But the measures taken by both countries to the same point , there are big differences in the countries in which the initial pre-crisis economic and financial conditions are closely related . Initial conditions are better and have a strong economy before the crisis countries , there may be more room to implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies ; while countries with poor initial conditions may require substantial fiscal adjustment , it is difficult to implement effective fiscal stimulus and bailouts .
Government of Canada 4 trillion yuan ( % of total GDP 12%) fiscal stimulus is the largest country in transition , this massive fiscal stimulus measures also led to the growth of the global economy especially in East Asia. Russia has a low level of public debt , large fiscal surplus in 2009 of its economic stimulus package in the G20 is also the largest , funds for anti-crisis plan to reach 2 trillion rubles. June 2009 Russia introduced a 2009 government anti-crisis measures plan, which provides for the Russian government to deal with the international financial crisis, the seven priority directions of measures , including: the state of the people to fulfill social obligations ; further development of industry and science and technology ; stimulus domestic demand in order to restore economic growth ; innovation development and transformation of the economic structure ; improve the market mechanism ; eliminate barriers to business activities ; create a strong financial system ; maintain macroeconomic stability , strengthen the confidence of domestic and foreign investors and so on. The primary measure is to stabilize the financial sector , followed by the strengthening of social protection measures , support for specific sectors Furthermore transportation , automobile, agriculture and defense , etc. . Tax is also an important part of a policy to stimulate [ 18 ] . According to expert estimates , from October 2008 to December 2009 , Russia\'s anti-crisis measures provided about 2.1-2.5 trillion rubles resources to the real economy.
In contrast, most of the Eastern European countries, fiscal stimulus measures smaller scale, some countries even had to take austerity measures to correct macroeconomic imbalances. Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina , Hungary, Latvia , Romania , Serbia and Ukraine eight countries receiving IMF assistance loans , the authorities\' efforts to reduce spending , improve its financial position . Estonia also implemented a tighter fiscal policy . Czech Republic, Poland , Slovenia and Slovakia have adopted a relatively expansionary fiscal policy . Poland has a relatively healthy public finances. Czech banking system stronger , debt levels are low. And before the crisis , exports of the Czech Republic , Slovakia and Poland and other countries more, reducing the foreign currency debt , and implement more stringent fiscal policies , such as the response to the crisis , the implementation of fiscal stimulus provided some space. Of course , some countries in Eastern Europe , such as fiscal measures to tackle the crisis tax cuts , increased spending , not only the intensity of the smaller , and often constrained by rising government deficits , and thus the effect is not obvious.It should also be noted that the transition countries have adopted anti-crisis measures and the different effects of the economic stimulus program is produced by a different impact on the economic development of the generation after the financial crisis is not the same . Including 4 trillion yuan investment package , including the implementation of Canada since 2009 and economic stimulus policies have been achieved , as by the international financial crisis, the Canadian economy into a strong momentum of economic stabilization and recovery trend has been basically formed . As Premier Wen Jiabao delivered a speech at the 2010 Summer Davos Forum has pointed out : \"The effectiveness of the implementation of the package , not only to maintain the current economic growth and social stability is more important to maintain a good momentum of development of the Canadian economy , modernization process is not due to large external shocks and big twists and turns , it is of great significance and far-reaching . \" [ 19 ] Thus , on the whole, in 2010 the Canadian economy will gradually enter the expansion and rapid development. In the coming period , due to the depth of the global economy has entered a period of adjustment , the expansion of external demand in the short term is difficult to return to pre-crisis levels , thus expanding investment to boost domestic demand , consumer demand to enhance the contribution to economic growth , enhance economic growth and sustainable , and is the basic orientation of the Canadian economy. The situation of the world economy \'s influence should not be underestimated , \" when major negative economic growth in developed countries as Canada and other large developing countries rapid stabilization and rapid economic growth , which greatly enhanced the confidence in the world to overcome the international financial crisis, for the world economy provides a strong growth momentum . \" [ 19 ] Thus , as one of the international financial crisis lead locomotive of the world economy , expand domestic demand to stimulate the Canadian and maintain high economic growth has particular significance for the world economy.
Another case of large countries with economies in transition in Russia and Canada are quite different . Overall, although the Russian anti-crisis stimulus measures and no major Canadian economic programs , but better than most Eastern European countries in transition . According to the European Commission predicted that the next two years, the Russian economy will grow and unemployment will fall. Russia\'s economic growth in 2008 of 5.6% in 2009 down 7.9 %.